Development of a multi-objective preference analysis (MOPA)-based multicriteria model for assessing the resilience of tourism destinations to flood risk
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35335/mandiri.v15i1.575Keywords:
Destination Resilience, Flood Risk, MOPA, Multicriteria Analysis, TourismAbstract
Floods can disrupt the accessibility, facilities, and sustainability of tourism destination activities. This study aims to develop a preliminary model to assess the resilience of tourism destinations to flood risk using a Multi-Objective Preference Analysis (MOPA) approach based on secondary data and openly available digital information. The case study was conducted at the Siombak Lake Tourism Park, Medan City, with five alternative observation periods from 2020-2024. The five indicators used include flood risk, rainfall, area exposure, accessibility, and availability of tourism facilities. Factual data was used when available, while indicators that did not have numerical data were supplemented using proxy scores based on expert judgment. Data were processed through the preparation of a decision matrix, classification of cost and benefit indicators, normalization, weighting, and aggregation of MOPA preference values. Sensitivity testing was conducted by changing the indicator weights by ±5% and ±10%. The results showed that alternative A4-2023 obtained the highest preference value of 0.7595, while A5-2024 obtained the lowest value of 0.4000. All sensitivity scenarios produced the same ranking order as the baseline, achieving 100% ranking stability. This research produces a simple, transparent, and replicable initial assessment framework. Future research can develop the model by integrating real-time or near-real-time meteorological, spatial, disaster, and sensor data
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